Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.